At any rate, the only thing relevant I have to mention is that being fully stocked was a godsend! Didn’t have to go out for mucinex, tissues, toilet paper, quick-to-make food, or anything else except our prescriptions. We did order in a lot of Chinese. When you’re that sick (and not quarantined) the idea of boiling pasta and microwaving meatballs from the freezer is a lot less appealing than a steaming bowl of wonton soup lovingly delivered by Mr. New Beijing in his shiny new Honda Fit. (“Wow. You live up HIGH! You climb all these stairs every day? You a-tha-lete!” )

In tangentially-related-to-preparedness news, my kiddie pool garden is thriving. I hope to add sage, lemongrass, and cilantro to it, and then grow a few window boxes of Genoese basil for pesto. Next year I will try potatoes in trash bags if Michael gives me permission to dig a root cellar (bury a huge garbage can.) We will see if the upside down tomatoes come to fruit, and if they do, next year I will add peppers, cucumbers, and possibly an eggplant (Justin doesn’t like eggplant, but I have a weakness for baba ghanouj.)

Some of us are just naturally more paranoid and prone to anxiety. In my mind, that’s a good thing. If we weren’t, who would balance the daredevils and bold risk-takers? There are people who blithely assume that whatever’s out there won’t happen, or won’t happen to them. They have an advantage of being relaxed and confident, so they’re often more lucky than the rest of us, and their faith isn’t challenged. But as a group, we can’t let either the daredevils or the worryworts predominate. The winding middle path is the best one.

So there’s no reason for me to try to be a daredevil when it’s against my nature and my nature is a valid and useful one.

There is a reason for me to avoid taking it to extremes. For one thing, it’s unpleasant. For another, it interferes with effectiveness to be constantly doubting and second-guessing and distracted by fears.

Preparedness is a constructive response to worry – one that, when done right, simultaneously moderates the visceral-emotional component and reduces the risks that I was so worried about to begin with.

When done right. If your idea of preparing is racing to stock up on supplies, fretting over getting the exactly right ones and whether you have enough… if you look for things to be worried about… if you stay up at night wondering if you’re doing enough, then YER DOIN IT WRONG.

Think about what you can actually prepare for. You can have a hand-crank radio. You can carry a small first aid kit. You can always keep your gas tank half full. Whatever works for you. But you can’t afford a bunker or a retreat in the remote wilderness. It’s ok. Have faith or be fatalistic, whatever works for you, but learn how to step back and say, “I’m done. This is the best I can do, and it’s plenty.”

Ground Zero: No worries. There’s nothing you could have done.
Blast Radius: Survival depends on luck and attitude. Preparedness may help, may not.
Outside the Blast Radius: Survival depends on preparedness, plus luck and attitude. Most people are going to end up outside the blast radius for most disasters.
No disaster: No worries. Unless you’ve spent so much on preparing that you can’t pay your bills and so much time worrying that you never get around to living.

People who aren’t natural worryworts will still think that you’re overreacting, but these are the same people who are always “borrowing” your tampons, begging swigs of your bottled water, and asking for Advil.

In other news, I crammed my freezer full of discounted pork ribs, chops, roasts, sirloin, and sausage. I feel bad for the farmers and retailers, and I’m disgusted that people don’t even pay attention to science or the news, but I’m not above taking advantage when I see good meat for less than a dollar a pound!

Item 2: The death rate in Mexico from Swine Flu is probably much less than has been stated. One possibility is that something else or something in addition is killing these people. Another possibility, more favored by Occam’s Razor, is that many thousands more people were infected than had been thought. This explains why the case fatality rate seems to be so much lower in the United States and other countries. Even so, the death count in Mexico is rising because more cases are being recognized. Here’s the CBS article.

Item 3: A vaccine against this strain of Swine Flu / H1N1 will be in production (Glaxo is involved) in a few weeks and on the market in four to six months. They foresee being able to make 600 to 700 million doses; enough to inoculate individuals in high risk groups (the elderly, young children, pregnant women, the immunocompromised, health care and emergency workers, etc.)  And of course, by the time a vaccine is available, there may well be other strains harshing our mellow. Here’s the Reuters article.

Item 4: Although Swine Flu ’09 is an H1N1 virus directly related to the 1918 Spanish Flu, it doesn’t share the genetic traits that made that strain so virulent. It also lacks the traits that make Avian Flu so lethal. Both Avian Flu and the 1918 Spanish Flu kill a disproportionate number of young adults with strong immune systems, while the current strain, like most seasonal flu, kills people with weak immune systems. Here’s the ABC article.

More on that: This type of H1 gene is the type that attaches to the upper respiratory tract, not the lungs. And this type of N1 gene is a type that is associated with a milder immune response (no cytokine storm.) More from Wired Science here.

Item 5: What about next fall, when the “real” flu season hits the northern hemisphere? It’s partly that people stay cooped up indoors together, and partly that the cold, dry air makes our mucus membranes more vulnerable, but flus that are mild in the spring often come back with a vengeance the next fall. Part of the reason is that they have time to mutate and exchange fragments of genetic material with other viruses. Sometimes the resulting new strains are more virulent, or are resistant to antiviral drugs that have been used against them in the past. But by then, vaccine will be available to high risk populations. You will have had several months to practice habits of washing your hands and not touching your face. And you’ll still have all the face masks and vinyl gloves you ran out and bought last week. Here’s the MSNBC article.

Remember my post about social networking software (Twitter) not necessarily being a boon during a crisis? Here’s an innovative, positive use of “Web 2.0″ technology: a nifty Google Map of the worldwide outbreak.

I don’t know about you, but I know exactly what I’m going to be doing with the Borg cube of toilet paper. Prepping for a bug-in consists of buying two categories of things:

1. Nonperishables you’re always using anyway. Now that you have a stash, you won’t run out suddenly and you can plan your shopping trips to save time, money, and gas.
2. Things that are useful across many different kinds of emergency. Whatever hits, you’ll be prepared, and you won’t have to battle traffic and maniacs waving The End Is Near signs at you to get to Walmart. Whether or not the Venusian Death Virus strikes, seasonal colds, flus, and stomach bugs will (and cumulatively cause just as much trouble) and Germ-X and Chlorox work just as well against them.

Preparedness is not your wish-fulfillment fantasy of proving yourself against trials and being your own (wo)man in the post-apocalyptic anarchy. (Perfectly valid fantasies, I might add. But this is different.) Preparedness is much more dull. Its purpose is to keep life as dull as possible so that we can have fun and be interesting.

What you see on the horizon may be the cloud of dust from an oncoming sandstorm, or it may be a trick of the light. There are two basic ways to respond to it:

1. Ignore it. If nothing happens you feel smart. “I told you it was no big deal!” – even if you weren’t actually foreseeing correctly, just sticking your head in the sand. But if it is a sandstorm, you’re in trouble.
2. Locate a nice cave. If nothing happens, you still know where the cave is for next time. Meanwhile maybe you can use it to keep your beer cool. If it is a sandstorm, you hang out in the cave until it’s over. It really wasn’t a big deal for you – because you were prepared.

This sort of wisdom only applies to this basic level of preparedness. For most of us, it would be downright silly to order Tamiflu and antibiotics from Canada and invest in cases of self-heating MREs, a gasoline generator, and water purification tabs. You have to weigh the likelihoods versus the costs. But that is another post.

By now, the Strategic National Stockpile of anti-flu drugs has been deployed. That means if there’s flu in your area and you go to the doctor, you can get your Tamiflu. But that previously mentioned BBC article passes on anecdotal reports that this strain is no more severe than seasonal flu.

This doesn’t mean it won’t be a right pain in the tuchus, being that even seasonal flu knocks a healthy person flat for a week or two, and this is a strain of flu that nobody has any immunity to yet. Expect to be covering people’s shifts!

The influenza virus is famous for its ability to recombine with other strains prevalent in human and animal populations to come up with something both lethal and highly contagious. So while we have dodged the bullet this time, it doesn’t mean that all outbreak panics turn out to be false alarms.

And in the interests of amusing you all, I link you to XKCD’s Swine Flu entry.

Patient Zero

I got it from iambliss over on LiveJournal, who got it from the Internets. (Step up, and I’ll credit you!)

The Tao te Ching (Stephen Mitchell translation) says, “Do your work, then step back: the only path to serenity.”

I’d like to add that once you’ve stepped back, it’s often helpful to have a good hoot, or at least a giggle. Even hysterical laughter is excellent for relieving unbearable tension.

Whether it’s lousy puns, snark, slapstick, forays into the horrendously inappropriate, black comedy, blue humor, irony, or absurdity, humor is a psychological coping skill that should be nurtured and appreciated.

So do what you need to do, or at least what you can. Then, once you’ve stepped back, have a good laugh. (Even a sad or bitter laugh is better than none.) It loosens you up, and you need all the flexibility and resilience (not to mention the endorphins and immune boost) you can get.

Here’s the Laughter page on Psychology Wiki.

• Denver News – “Researchers: Social Networking Sites Critical in Disaster Situations”
• Web20Igo – “Social Networking in Emergency Management”
• Stephenson Blogs on Homeland Security 2.0 – “21st-century Disaster Prep Tips You Won’t Get From Officials”

There’s also evidence (not to mention common sense) that social networking via the Web can also cause problems by noising up the signal and spreading misinformation.

• NPR – “Swine Flu: Twitter’s Power to Misinform”
• Computer World – “Virginia Tech Shooting Shows Benefits, Pitfalls of Social Networking Services”

Should we delete our Twitter accounts? Absolutely not!

Information can be shared any number of ways, and humans can screw it up regardless of the medium they’re using. You are responsible for examining and judging information that comes to you.

• Is it up to date or out of date?
• Where are they getting their information? How do they back it up?
• Who are they to talk? What are their credentials? What’s their experience?

Even if you’ve got up-to-date information from somebody who seems to be an expert or an authority, you still need to check for signs of errors, bias, and outright deception.

• Is there any reason to believe they might have an ideological bias or a financial stake that affects the quality of the information?
• What’s their agenda? Is it self-interested? Are they trying to change your mind, and why?

Here are some helpful web resources on how to spot the many varieties of misinformation (both malicious and unintentional) that are out there:

• Chronicle Review - “The Seven Warning Signs of Bogus Science”
• “How to Recognize Bullshit” (flowchart)
• Logical Fallacies
• Humbug! The Skeptic’s Field Guide to Spotting Fallacies in Thinking (free e-book)

If you don’t stay informed, you’re just waiting to be blindsided. By staying well-informed, you can see a potential crisis coming in the distance and have plenty of time to get out of the way. There is no substitute for your own judgment in choosing the best sources of information and subjecting it all to a bit of quality control checking.

At least, I hope you are not thinking, “Disaster! Emergency! In 20 years, the children of the survivors will be asking me about The Great Plague of Aught-Nine!” Because if you are, you are too worried to enjoy life, and more to the point, too worried about one thing in particular to be prepared for life in general!

No, you are not required to think disaster is imminent to be prepared. It’s much healthier to assume that things will be OK most of the time, with two exceptions:

1. Take a little time out to brainstorm scenarios and rank them two ways – least likely to most likely, and least severe to most severe. Now you have an idea of what kinds of things you might need to prepare for, and what kinds of things are most worth the effort, time, and money. Stocking up on nonperishable foods and household necessities is affordable when done over the course of a few months, and those items will get used anyway. A month’s supply of face masks may never get used, but on the other hand, you’d really miss them if you didn’t get them and a pandemic did strike. At the opposite extreme, your own nuclear bunker is a huge investment that has little chance of being used for more than a storage shed or nightmare-inducing playhouse for neighborhood children.
2. Be ready to move from your everyday mode to Sherlock Holmes (suspicious, analytical), MacGuyver (creative problem solver), or Jack Bauer (hardcore) Mode, as need be. All too often people see things coming and don’t recognize them because they’re filtering out what doesn’t fit their worldview. Be aware of different worldviews and be willing to try them on. When something strikes you a little odd, that’s the time to step out of your ordinary frame of mind and into survivor mind. Practice moving back and forth for fun, to stay flexible.

This all can be boiled down into the aphorism “Trust the Lord, but buy insurance.” It’s good to compartmentalize your worries, perform regular reality checks on them, and act on them within reason and within your means.

There ya go.

Oh – what? Why, you ask?

Well, I don’t think we should be TOO worried because the case mortality is low and dropping. Also, with the specter of Avian Flu hovering over us for several years, the emergency response people are more prepared than ever before to deal with exactly this situation.

But I think we should be somewhat worried because this appears to be a highly virulent strain of flu that’s entirely new, so nobody has any resistance. While it’s not going to kill off huge swaths of the population, it will make a lot of people sick at the same time, and that’s all it takes to shut down shops and services. What happens when most of the guys who fix power lines call in sick, and there’s a thunder storm? What happens when most of the cashiers at the supermarket call in sick? What happens when most of the cops call in? The nurses?

It’s not that so many people are going to die from it, so much as it’s poised to be massively inconvenient and economically devastating.

Worst case, the things we’re used to – lights, heat, running water, cable, internet, police patrols, public transportation, admission to emergency rooms and urgent care clinics for non-life threatening conditions, and the necessaries of life available to buy – may not be around for a while.